Selling
What is it actually worth?
There are two numbers and a buyer pays the higher of them. One is a multiple of what the business earns. The other is what the trucks and trailers would fetch, less what is owed on them.
For a great many small carriers the second number wins, and that is the thing nobody wanting the listing tells you. It is not a failure. It is worth knowing before you spend a year in a sale process expecting a multiple, and it is the difference between planning an exit and reacting to one.
The business
The equipment, at what it would sell for
What is true of the business
What a buyer would likely pay you
$370,000
to $670,100
Earnings led: the business is worth more than its equipment, which is what you want to see.
Earnings a buyer sees
$297,000
operating profit plus your pay and add-backs
Multiple
2.2x to 3.3x
5 to 9 trucks
Asset floor, net of debt
$370,000
nobody sells for less than this
From earnings, net of debt
$670,100
at the top of the multiple
What the boxes you did not tick are worth
$297,000
at the top of the range, if every value driver were true. Most of them take a year or two to fix and are worth more than that year of profit, which is the argument for planning an exit early rather than deciding to sell and then selling.
- Mostly contracted or dedicated freight
- No customer over a quarter of revenue
- The owner does not drive a truck
- Drivers who will stay through a sale
Ranges, because anyone quoting a single number for a private company is selling something. The multiple bands come from how small carriers actually trade and the value drivers are directional weightings rather than measured coefficients; the ranking is reliable, the exact magnitude is a judgement. Nothing you type here leaves your browser.
Why size changes the multiple
The pattern is consistent across small-company M&A and it is not really about trucks. The smaller and more owner-dependent a business, the closer it trades to its assets, because what a buyer is acquiring is equipment and an authority rather than an organisation that runs without its founder.
| Fleet | Typical multiple | What a buyer is really paying for |
|---|---|---|
| 1 to 4 trucks | 1.5x to 2.5x | Usually worth its equipment. The revenue goes where the owner goes, and a buyer knows it. |
| 5 to 9 trucks | 2.0x to 3.0x | The point where dispatch and maintenance start being a job rather than an evening, which is the first thing a buyer is actually paying for. |
| 10 to 24 trucks | 2.5x to 3.8x | A real organisation. Contracted freight and a second layer of management move it up this range fast. |
| 25 to 49 trucks | 3.0x to 4.5x | Large enough to attract financial buyers as well as strategic ones, which is what puts a floor under the multiple. |
| 50 trucks and up | 3.5x to 5.5x | Priced on EBITDA rather than on the owner, and competitive processes become possible. |
Applied to seller’s discretionary earnings for the smaller bands and to EBITDA as the business gets large enough to run without its owner. Ranges rather than figures, because anyone quoting a single number for a private company is selling something.
The six things that move the number
Most of these take a year or two to fix and are worth more than that year of profit, which is the whole argument for deciding how you will eventually exit long before you want to.
Mostly contracted or dedicated freight
Revenue a buyer can underwrite. Pure spot exposure is the single biggest discount applied to a small carrier, because next year's revenue is a forecast rather than a contract.
No customer over a quarter of revenue
Concentration is the risk a buyer prices hardest. One customer at 40% of revenue can halve a multiple, because losing them after closing is the buyer's problem.
The owner does not drive a truck
If the owner is also a driver, a buyer is purchasing a job. If dispatch, sales and maintenance run without them, they are purchasing a business.
Clean CSA scores and no pattern of violations
Safety history transfers with the authority, and a bad record raises the acquirer's insurance on their whole fleet, not just the trucks they bought.
Drivers who will stay through a sale
Equipment without drivers is equipment. In a market where seated trucks are the constraint, a stable roster is a large part of what is being bought.
Clean books and filed returns
Not a value driver so much as a deal-killer in reverse: unverifiable earnings get discounted to assets, because a buyer can only pay for what they can prove.
When a calculator stops being enough
Everything above works off figures you already know. What it cannot see is the shape of your contracts, how a buyer will treat your customer mix, what your safety history does to their insurance, and what carriers of your size and type have actually traded for in the last few months. Those are the things that move a real offer.
They are also the reason the range above is wide. Narrowing it takes someone looking at your accounts rather than at a form.
Being straight about the interest
This is the one commercial relationship on this site that is ours rather than a third party’s. Enquiries go to an affiliated M&A advisory firm, which is paid by a seller on a completed transaction in the ordinary way. The calculator above is free, sends nothing anywhere, and is deliberately honest about asset-led outcomes even though telling you the trucks are the value is the answer least likely to produce a client. Full disclosure.