The teardown
How many miles does the lease need?
Every lease-purchase programme has the same shape: a fixed weekly obligation that does not care whether you got miles, against a rate paid on loaded miles only. The question is never whether the rate is good. It is how many miles a week the deal needs before it pays anything at all, and whether the carrier can actually supply them in the weeks you are sitting.
Three shapes, same arithmetic
All three at 88% loaded, 6.0 mpg and $4.049 diesel. Notice that the high-payment, high-rate programme is not obviously the worst one, and that none of them survives a quiet week.
| Programme shape | Weekly fixed | Quoted rate | Real rate | Margin | Break-even | At 2,800 mi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low payment, low rate | $880 | $1.10 | $0.968 | $0.133 | 6,608 mi | -$507 |
| Mid payment, mid rate | $1,130 | $1.35 | $1.188 | $0.353 | 3,200 mi | -$141 |
| High payment, high rate | $1,430 | $1.65 | $1.452 | $0.617 | 2,317 mi | $298 |
Break-even is miles a week before a single dollar reaches you, and it excludes your own pay, income tax and any week the truck is down. Computed with the same functions the cost-per-mile calculator uses.
Put the terms you were offered in
What they deduct, every week
What you are told you will earn
Take-home at 2,800 miles a week
-$141
before income tax, and before anything breaks.
Break-even
3,200 mi
a week, before you earn a dollar
Real rate per mile
$1.188
after deadhead, against $1.35 quoted
The arithmetic
- Fixed each week$1,130
- Variable per mile$0.835
- Margin per mile$0.353
The question is never whether the rate is good. It is how many miles a week the deal needs before it pays anything at all, and whether the carrier offering it can actually supply them week after week, including the weeks you are sitting.
Escrow is not savings
It is money you have handed over that you do not control, and the conditions for getting it back are in the contract rather than in the recruiter’s description of it. Treat it as a cost until it is returned, which is how the calculator above treats it.
The miles are the whole promise
Every one of these deals works at enough miles and none of them works below break-even. So the only question that matters at signing is what happens in a slow week, and that answer is rarely in writing.
Compare it against the alternative
Run the same miles and the same rate through the cost-per-mile calculator as if you owned the truck. If owning wins on identical assumptions, the lease is buying you convenience rather than a business.